The probability of completing your hand
In Texas Hold’em, it is very important to know how to calculate his chances of touching cards that will improve your hand. Many hands in Texas Hold’em are considered pious and others that may seem innocuous pre-flop can become strong hands once the flop is developed. Also, it is quite rare to calculate the chances of hitting one’s cards (outs) when one is in a pre-flop situation.
The first point to remember, the deck of cards in poker consists of 52 cards, 4 colors of 13 cards, this is the basis for calculating probabilities since these data will allow you to calculate “the universe of possibilities” of the cards remaining to come out. Another important point, we must not forget that the more players at the table, the more cards already distributed at the time of the game that interests us, so your chances of touching your cards can be reduced or increased, but it is impossible for you to know the game of your opponents, the calculation of outs must, therefore, do without these parameters.
Practical case :
You have 2 Hearts in hand and the flop has 2 Hearts also, so you lack the heart to shoot among the turn or the river to touch your color and therefore improve your hand. In this case, there are 9 hearts left in play (13 – 4), so it is said that the number of Outs is 9.
Calculation of the chances to hit a heart of the turn: (number of outs x 2)+2 = 9×2 + 2 = 20% chances of hitting a heart at the turn.
Calculation of the chances of touching a heart either at the turn or at the river: number of outs x 4 = 9×4 = 36% chance of touching a heart at the turn or at the river.
Of course, there are other parameters to take into account, if your opponent himself has 2 Hearts, the number of outs could be reduced to 7 and your chances (at all 2) to touch your heart will be reduced.
The main interest of the probabilities of outs is above all to give a simple tool to know its chances, but we must not forget that the hand you are looking for may not be the best possible, so stay alert and focused!